An accounting measure of the demand for money is deduced from the Allais’ “Fundamental Equation of Monetary Dynamics”. Data from German hyperinflation in the early 1920s illustrate the method we propose. The spread between money supply and money demand is found to be rather moderate but is not white noise. Our approach can be applied to any country and over any period, provided that the aggregate expenditure can be approximated using available data. This new way can help improve the estimation of the money demand function while avoiding arbitrary assumptions about the dynamics of the spread between money supply and money demand.
Mot(s) clé(s)
demand for money, measure
2026-1
Low-Carbon Hydrogen Deployment Under Trade Liberalization Policies
Reaching global net-zero by 2050 requires rapidly scaling low-carbon hydrogen, but deployment is hindered by market uncertainty, high capital costs, and weak supply-demand coordination. This paper examines whether liberalizing international hydrogen and ammonia trade can accelerate deployment and how such policies interact with technological innovation. We develop a hybrid framework combining a global TIMES-based energy-system model (KiNESYS-IFPEN) with a stochastic logistic diffusion model calibrated to historical renewable energy growth under imperfect expectations. We find that trade liberalization alone has limited global impact, and mainly reallocates production geographically: the Middle East, North America, Latin America, and China expand as exporters, while Asia Pacific, Europe and Africa become structural importers. Innovation-driven electrolyzer cost reductions raise significantly global deployment success shifting production toward electrolysis. When policies are combined, innovation dominates, while trade openness reinforces regional specialization. These results underscore the central role of technological progress, credible expectations, and the trade-off between cost-efficient specialization and hydrogen supply security.
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