DOCTORANTS

Discutants :Thomas Chuffart, Papa Thiecouta Diallo (externe)
Abstract: This paper develops a Climate-Aware Economic Scenario Generator (CA-ESG) in response to recent guidance from the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) urging insurers to integrate forward-looking climate scenarios into their risk-management frameworks. The proposed model operationalizes this recommendation by combining a ridge-based Random Vector Functional Link (RVFL) neural architecture with a latent climate driver extracted from Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) Orderly scenario trajectories through Principal Component Analysis (PCA). This driver enables the ex-ante conditioning of macro-financial projections on climate dynamics. Although the NGFS-derived climate driver originates exogenously, it becomes endogenized within the model’s learning dynamics, as the RVFL jointly learns macro-financial dependencies and their sensitivity to the imposed climate pathway. To preserve realistic stochastic behavior and temporal coherence, idiosyncratic uncertainty is reintroduced through a block bootstrap of residuals derived from the baseline model. The resulting CA-ESG unifies the endogenous learning of economic dynamics with climate conditioning guided by NGFS pathways, providing a coherent framework that bridges financial and climatic processes and supports more robust ORSA exercises and climate stress testing, where simulated economic trajectories explicitly reflect the climate risks embedded in transition pathways.

Discutants: Elisabeth Tovar et Thomas Jacquet

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of Low Emission Zones (LEZ) and Ultra Low Emission Zones (ULEZ) on individual well-being in London. As cities around the world adopt low emission zones to curb air pollution and promote cleaner transportation, understanding the broader consequences of these policies — beyond air quality improvements — becomes crucial for both policymakers and the public. In this study, we focus on the case of London, which introduced its LEZ in 2008, followed by successive expansions of the ULEZ in 2019, 2021, and 2023, progressively covering the entire Greater London area.

Because the Ultra Low Emission Zone is a relatively recent policy, most existing studies have primarily focused on its effects on air quality, leaving other dimensions underexplored. One crucial yet often overlooked aspect is its impact on individuals’ subjective well-being, which plays a key role in understanding the policy’s acceptability. While improvements in air quality may positively influence well-being, behavioural adjustments in response to the policy can also have significant effects. Beyond shifting towards cleaner transportation modes, individuals may adapt by modifying their commuting habits, including reducing car use in favour of public transport, active mobility, or even teleworking as an alternative to daily travel. This paper aims to fill this gap by providing new evidence on how individuals adjust their commuting choices, transportation modes, and work arrangements in response to this evolving regulatory environment. In addition to quantifying the overall impact on well-being, we explore the channels through which these effects operate, focusing on the role of improved air quality, changes in transport habits (modal shift towards public transport, walking, or cycling), and the decision to adopt teleworking as an alternative to commuting by car.

Combining spatial data on zone boundaries with individual-level panel data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS), covering the period from the early 1990s to 2024, we estimate the causal effects of the Ultra Low Emission Zone on subjective well-being, commuting choices, and teleworking. Using a difference-in-differences approach that exploits the staggered spatial and temporal expansions of the zones, we isolate the effects of the policy from broader trends affecting Londoners. The analysis takes advantage of the panel structure of the data, allowing us to track individual responses over time as their residential area becomes subject to stricter emissions standards.

This research contributes to the growing literature on the social and emotional impacts of environmental policies, highlighting the importance of integrating well-being metrics into policy evaluations. By providing evidence on the trade-offs between environmental gains and potential social costs, this work aims to inform the design of future low emission zones to maximize both environmental effectiveness and public acceptability.

Poupard, Adam & Santos Carneiro, Gabriel

Discutants: Lionel Ragot et Luca Tausch

Abstract : Target 3 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) aims at conserving at least 30% of Earth’s land and sea areas by 2030 (30x30 target) to halt biodiversity loss and reduce physical risk. Safeguarding specific places based on the location of areas important for biodiversity raises the risk of an unprecedented transition risk for conventional agriculture. In this study, we estimate direct agricultural and indirect intersectoral economic exposure for four distinct conservation scenarios, by intersecting geospatial datasets and linking them with inter-industry matrices. We show that direct exposure is concentrated in upper-middle-income countries ; high-income countries are more exposed to indirect effects, while low-income countries face higher relative exposure effects. Averaged domestic output exposure settles at 7% across all scenarios and income groups. Income group exposure disparities are largely explained by patterns of global trade, settling a large part of agricultural production in the global South, together with the concentration of the most biodiverse ecosystems in the tropics. The exposure results lay the groundwork for further comparisons of conservation policies, and for the development of North-South transfer mechanisms to ensure biodiversity protection that guarantees environmental justice.

Discutante junior : Lisa Depraiter (Université Parisd-Saclay, UMI-SOURCE)

Abstract : "The global energy transition, marked by an increasing reliance on critical metals and substantial financing needs, raises questions about the interplay between critical metals prices and financial market performance. This paper investigates the relationship between the prices of critical metals and the stock markets, especially for the renewable energy and low-carbon technology sectors. Using an econometric framework based relying mainly on structural VAR and local projections on weekly data, the analysis distinguishes two distinct periods: before and after 2020. The results reveal a structural shift in the dynamics between these variables. Prior to 2020, critical metal prices and energy transition sectoral stocks were positively correlated, reflecting a period of moderate price increases and investor optimism. However, in the post-2020 period, the relationship turns markedly negative. Surging metal prices appear to weigh on market performance, posing potential threats to both the profitability and financial stability of the general and sectoral stock markets."

Discutants : Pascal Yebarth (sénior), Olivier Kayser (junior)

Résumé : In this note, we reconsider the model of ambiguity in election games from Aragones and Postlewaite (2002). We review their proposition 1, and more specifi cally, the existence conditions of pure strategy equilibria with ambiguous winning strategies, in the presence of a Condorcet winner alternative. The original paper suggests that the Condorcet candidate could win by appealing to all groups for whom the Condorcet alternative is at least the second preference. Our new proof suggests diff erent results: the Condorcet candidate could only win by the votes of groups who most prefer the Condorcet alternative and of groups who most prefer the third alternative initially unrelated to either candidate.

Discutants : Elisabeth Tovar (sénior), Maria José Montoya-Villalobos (IÉSEG School of Management) (sénior)

Résumé : Unlike the increase in organic good consumption, the transition from conventional farming to organic was slowed down recently despite the transparent benefi ts of organic farming to farmers. To solve this dilemma, understanding the roles of farmer preferences in their willingness to convert to organic farming is necessary. We conducted a lab-in-the-fi eld experiment to elicit farmer’s risk, ambiguity, time preferences along with a survey to obtain their social and other control factors and retrieved 611 completed respondents in Vietnam. We introduce a theoretical framework to propose two propositions on eff ects of risk and ambiguity attitudes on farmer’s profi t optimization. Our study employ an endogenous fractional model to reveal the impact farmer’s risk and ambiguity preferences on their willingness to convert to organic farming. Specifi cally, the results indicate farmer’s insurance and political affi liation good instruments to measure the endogenous eff ect of farmer’s risk and ambiguity preference on their intended land conversion. Regarding control variables, farmers who are future bias and has low discount rate willing to adopt organic farming. Social trust and social norm stimulate the land conversion percentage of farmers to organic farming. To promote land conversion to organic farming, policymakers should design adjustable support schemes to decrease farmer’s risk/ambiguity aversion such as Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) enacted in the EU. Timely support for early organic adopters is also substantial because organic farming is a long-term investment business.

Discutants : Phu Nguyen-Van (sénior), Claire Mollier (junior)

Résumé : This study examines whether providing financial transfers influences depressive symptoms among older European adults and explores whether income or wealth shocks moderate this relationship. Using longitudinal data from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and a staggered dynamic Difference-in-Differences approach, this study assesses the psychological consequences of financial giving across diverse socioeconomic contexts. Results indicate that while giving initially leads to a decline in mental well-being, this effect diminishes over time, suggesting an adjustment process rather than lasting distress. The negative impact is strongest among lower-income individuals and those still employed, while retirees and wealthier givers experience weaker effects. Contrary to expectations, income and wealth shocks do not significantly amplify depressive symptoms, implying that financial strain alone does not drive the relationship between giving and mental health. Instead, financial transfers appear to be shaped by long-term social commitments, moral obligations, and ingrained norms rather than short-term economic considerations.

Discutants : Frédéric Lantz (IFP School) (sénior), Benjamin Trouvé (junior)

Résumé : This paper investigates the impact of the extension of Flow-Based Market Coupling (FBMC) on the convergence of electricity prices in Europe. Market coupling mechanisms, particularly FBMC, play a crucial role in harmonizing electricity prices between bidding zones by optimizing cross-border capacity allocation. We analyze the transition from Available Transfer Capacity (ATC) to FBMC, highlighting its advantages in improving the convergence of market prices. Using daily day-ahead electricity prices from 12 member countries of the Core Capacity Calculation Region (CCR) to construct a price dispersion indicator, our results confi rm a signifi cant reduction in price dispersion after the extension of FBMC, with an estimated price gap reduction of around -31.07€/MWh. Our fi ndings are robust and bolster the eff ectiveness of FBMC in strengthening market integration.

Discutants : Corinne Chaton (EDF & Université de Tours) (sénior), Pauline Bucciarelli (junior)

Résumé : India is currently the third-largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter and the world’s most populous country. In a context of global warming and increasingly frequent extreme weather events, India has set a target of achieving Net-Zero emissions in 2070. Indian electricity generation accounts for 53% of total energy-related CO2 emissions and consumption is projected to nearly triple by 2040 compared to 2019. Ensuring access to affordable and reliable electricity is critical for India’s future social and economic development. This research explores the optimal electricity generation mix for India to meet its environmental goals amidst rising electricity demand and the challenges of climate change. For this purpose, we develop an optimization model for the Indian power sector. It incorporates techno-economic constraints using a linear programming approach with dynamic investment. The model investigates the optimal production dispatch and investment schedule for the five regional grids, accounting for inter-regional transmission. We use scenarios to simulate uncertainties in future economic growth, climate variation and environmental constraints. They encompass various growth rates in electricity demand, technological breakthroughs and adverse effects of climate change. Scenarios are assessed based on installed capacity and generation mix, investment path and total cost. This analysis contributes to the literature on decarbonizing future energy systems in developing countries through long-term modeling and linear optimization frameworks. It provides insights into the identification of total cost variations associated with the electricity mix decarbonization in a context of economic development submitted to climate change.

Discutants : Lionel Ragot (sénior), Charlène Barnet (CMA Mines Paris - PSL, TTI.5)(junior)

Résumé : According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), reaching Net-Zero emissions target by 2050 requires a deep penetration of hydrogen, and is expected to represent 12% of global final energy consumption. However, this deployment faces constraints on both supply and demand scale up, and matching. In this paper, we ask if global hydrogen trade liberalization enables the optimal hydrogen production capacities deployment in a carbon-neutral energy system by 2050. Combining an energy system least-cost optimization model (KiNESYS-IFPEN) with an adapted logistic diffusion model with uncertainty on parameters, we find that, while regionally impactful, global hydrogen trade openness has limited effects globally. The distribution effect across regions dominates since several specialize themselves as exporters (Middle East, Latin America, Australia and Africa), or as importers (Europe and East Asia). This effect is stronger when combined with investment costs reduction in electrolysers and longer expectations on future hydrogen market size. These results highlight the trade-off between achieving least-cost regional energy transition and ensuring hydrogen supply security.

Discutants : Quentin Hoarau (sénior), Julie Corberand (junior)

Résumé : Long-term electricity contracting has remained an unresolved issue in European markets, with growing implications for decarbonising industries. This 'missing market' failure indeed increases the electricity market volatility, the cost of capital, and hence reduces investments in both new generation and electrification of usages. In this paper, we argue that industrial decarbonisation investments stand apart due to their unique characteristics: they are subject to strong ambiguity - rather than risk -, and are irreversible by design. Building on these insights, we develop a bilateral contracting model that accounts for ambiguity aversion and investment irreversibility, tailored to the dynamics between energy producers and industrial consumers. Using the real-world case of ArcelorMittal and EdF, we demonstrate that the current market design prevents parties from reaching a mutually advantageous agreement. Finally, we discuss policy measures to overcome these barriers and stimulate low-carbon investment across both sectors.

Discutants: Estel Apeti, Albin Salmon

Résumé : This article assesses the impact of weather variations on France’s agricultural sector over the period 1980 to 2023, employing recent local projection and pseudo-panel local projection frameworks at a sub-national level. It highlights the detrimental effects of increasing temperatures on the value added of the agricultural sector and underscores an important northsouth divide. Moreover, the article also stresses the importance of an estimation method that goes beyond conventional panel studies, in particular by decomposing weather variables. It further explores the significance of adopting a pseudo-panel local projection specification in analyzing these relationships, contributing new insights to the literature and informing regionspecific policy interventions.

Discutants: Hugo Oriola, Pablo Aguilar Perez

Résumé : The conjunction of the growing digitalization of the economy and the rise of demand for high-frequency indicators have made internet search data a very popular source for forecasting and nowcasting exercises. Since the inception of Google Trends, influential papers have highlighted its predictive powers, but very few academic studies have taken into account the possible inconsistencies in these series. This paper empirically investigates the drivers of Google Trends data inconsistencies. It also puts forward a methodology to use them in real time, alleviating sampling-related inconsistencies. Finally, it uses Google Trends data to build a nowcast of US Personal Consumption Expenditures.

Discutants : Valérie Mignon, Michaël Guillossou

Résumé : This paper investigates the effects on adult and children height of currency crises experienced during childhood. It uses survey data from DHS collected in 57 countries for hundreds of thousands of adults and children under 5 years-old collected between 2000 and 2023, combined with a dataset indicating the start of currency crises between 1970 and 2017. In this setting, adults having experienced a currency crisis between their birth and 10 years old are on average shorter than their peers, with a maximum effect of about - 3 mm (-0.04 SD) for crises experienced between 5-6 years old. Children under 5 experiencing a currency crisis between their birth and the date of the survey also tend to be shorter, by about - 0.1 SD. Reduced food intake is likely to be the main channel: results are higher in net food importing countries, and children growing up during a currency crisis are less likely to eat any solid food and to have a diversified diet in the days preceding the survey. By contrast, the latter are not less likely to receive vaccines or medication in case of a currency crisis. The effects on height are stronger for poorer households, which is likely to reflect different food and non-food coping strategies compared to richer households. Finally, we show that the effects are smaller when controlling for inflation, suggesting a food affordability channel through higher prices. Additionally we document that our results are unlikely to be influenced by differential selection in parenting across households’ wealth levels. The effects are robust to a large number of alternative specifications and sample restrictions.

Discutants : Noémie Berlin, Moustapha Sarr

Résumé : This study explores how individuals perceive and respond to wealth inequalities based on intergroup comparisons. Specifically, I examine whether individuals tend to minimize the inequalities they experience when they observe more pronounced disparities in another group. To investigate this, a laboratory experiment is conducted where participants are matched into groups of two players. Subjects receive different allocations within their group and different types of information regarding the other group: no information, the wealthiest’s allocation, the poorest’s allocation, the both allocations, and the actions taken to reduce (or not) inequalities within the group. Data shows that the disclosure of both the other group’s members allocations, and hence the level of inequality, negatively impacts the willingness to move towards a more equal situation. Revealing the allocation of the wealthiest, or the other group’s decision not to redistribute, enhances the perceived fairness of the allocation received.

Discutants : Cécile Couharde, Albin Salmon

Résumé : Over the last 3 decades, emerging and developing countries have seen an increase in FDI and, at the same time, rising emigration rates over the same period. This paper therefore re-explores the relationship between diaspora and inward FDI. Differentiating African countries from the rest of the developing world, the results show a positive relationship for these countries, driven by low-skilled migrants, and with an important role of infrastructure. These results suggest public policies to create supportive business environment, and strengthen economic and infrastructural development.

Discutants : Phu Nguyen-Van, Nolwenn Loisel
Résumé : From November 1st 2019 to July 31st 2020, the minimum past employment record worked criterion to benefit from a compensated unemployment spell has been lengthened from 4 months out of 28 months to 6 months out of 24 months. We are studying the impact of this change in eligibility criterion on employment agencies registration behavior, the job finding rate following a job loss, and the quality of the job eventually found. Using payroll taxes information about contracts, historical files from employment agences about registered job-seekers and a difference in differences strategy, we obtain two main results. Firstly, the reform has a negative and significant impact of around 5 points on the probability from registering to employment agencies within two months after the end of one contract. Secondly, the reform has a positive and significant impact of around 3 points on the probability of finding a job within two months following their job loss. Except for younger than 25 years, this effect is driven by a rise in the job finding rate for fixed-term contracts of less than 2 months or temporary ones. There is an heterogeneous employment effect by gender, with women reacting more than men to the reform.

Discutants: Benjamin Monnery et Thomas Jacquet

Résumé: To reach its 2050 objective of carbon neutrality, the European Union (EU) must continue to step up its climate efforts while grappling with the risk of diminished competitiveness in the face of unregulated competition. The EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is at the core of the bloc’s industrial decarbonization efforts. This paper examines how changes in industrial firms’ emission intensity affects their economic and financial performance. We construct a dataset covering around 1,200 industrial firms covered by the EU ETS’ third phase and estimate a novel indicator of volume-based emission intensities for these firms. Applying an IV approach to a within-firm panel model, we find a causal link where changes in firms’ emission intensity inversely affect their corporate performance. This is especially notable for firms that reduced their emission intensity, who saw a resulting small but significant increase in their economic and financial performance.

Discutants: Quentin Hoarau et Pauline Buciarelli

Résumé: Energy transition policies in Europe focus on two main levers: increasing the share of renewables in the electricity mix and electrification, specifically electrification of transportation.Those dynamics will increase the constraints on the electricity system, as the transmission system operator will have to balance an increased electricity consumption with a more intermittent production. On the electricity market, demand response influences the equilibrium price determined by the merit order mechanism: power units are run from the lowest to the highest marginal cost. The priority of renewable energies (wind and solar units) sometimes leads to negative prices. It is cheaper to maintain the production of some conventional units rather than to make them stop and then restart (ramp-up time is an important problem for such unit). Subsequently, load shedding during hours of peak residual load (load minus the wind and solar production) can result in lowering the price, while load shifting to a time when renewables production is at its highest can limit negative pricing. In this context, this article aims at measuring this merit order effect of demand response and renewable supply on electricity market prices. Using an hourly data set over one year in France (2019), we point out the strong difference between peak and off-peak hours through a statistical analysis of the market prices, electricity supply and demand. Then we estimate Markov switching model with two regimes to project the day-ahead hourly price on the French market. This enables us to estimate the average variation in price induced by a variation of the load and a variation of the renewable supply in the electricity mix. A price transformation has been required to consider negative electricity prices with the hyperbolic sine function.

co-auteurs : Vincent D’Herbemont, Dr. Emmanuel Hache, Dr. Louis-Marie Malbec

Discutants: Tanguy Bonnet, Quentin Hoarau

Résumé: This study examines the design of the recently adopted Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) in Europe, and investigates the feasibility of its benchmarks in the case of battery-grade lithium. By integrating the entire lithium value chain into an Integrated Assessment Model, we analyse the interplay between lithium supply, demand, and recycling within decarbonisation scenarios. Our findings suggest significant challenges in meeting the CRMA targets without reducing industrial demand. We show that sufficiency strategies could help achieving these benchmarks while also decreasing reliance on imports. In addition, we argue that the current recycling benchmark should be replaced with an end-of-life recycling rate target to enhance policy relevance.

Discutants: Romain Svartzman et Florian Baudouin

Résumé: La transition énergétique telle qu’elle est pensée aujourd’hui par les Etats-Unis, mais aussi par d’autres économies avancées, représente un nouveau cycle d’accumulation matérielle, avec une explosion des besoins en matières premières minérales. Leurs ressources minérales domestiques étant insuffisantes, les Etats-Unis vont se tourner vers l’international pour s’assurer un approvisionnement. L’idée de ce chapitre de thèse est d’analyser les stratégies d’approvisionnement des Etats-Unis, et les relations politico-économiques avec les pays fournisseurs en minerais et métaux critiques de la transition, en s’inscrivant dans la littérature du World-Ecology System et de l’échange écologique inégal. L’objectif est double, i) contribuer à la théorie existante en l’appliquant et/ou en l’affinant au cas des minerais critiques et ii) évaluer le risque d’échange écologique inégal entre les Etats-Unis et les pays miniers fournisseurs, en le posant comme une limite politique à une transition globalisée et juste.

Discutants: Kim Pham et Valentin Laprie

Discutants: Christophe Blot et Lorenzo Garlanda

Résumé: The Covid-19 crisis precipitated a ”dash for cash” phenomenon, exposing vulnerabilities in short-term debt markets. In response, the Eurosystem undertook its inaugural effective intervention in the corporate commercial paper (CP) market in March 2020, through the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), aiming to bolster monetary policy transmission and address firms’ short-term financing needs. This paper investigates the aggregate and dynamic effects of the PEPP intervention on corporate CP, focusing on i) volumes issued, ii) maturity, and iii) yields at issuance. Employing a difference-in-differences methodology that leverages eligibility criteria at the security and issuer levels, our analysis reveals a discernible shift in the debt composition of eligible firms. Notably, we observe a significant increase in maturity at issuance, averaging 42 days for eligible issuers, which contributes to mitigating rollover risk. Moreover, the PEPP effectively alleviated financing conditions, resulting in a reduction in yields by 8 to 11 basis points for eligible firms. While eligible issuances increased, our findings do not indicate a corresponding rise in issuance at the aggregate level. Furthermore, our analysis underscores the influence of firms’ investor sector, particularly for issuers predominantly held by money market funds prior to the crisis, where the effect on maturity appears more subdued.

Discutants: Thomas Chuffart et Michael Guilloussou

Rapporteurs: Luis Becerra Valbuena et Nabil Daher
Résumé: This study examines how long-term climate changes influence migration patterns within the US Corn Belt through the agricultural sector. We combine two county level datasets - migration data from the Internal Revenue Service Statistics of Income Division and corn yield and irrigation data from USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service annual surveys - with ERA5-Land gridded temperature data. We use an instrumental variable approach within a long-difference framework to assess the impact of corn yields trends from 1960 to 2022 on migration rates in Corn Belt counties since 1990. Our findings reveal significant upward trends in extreme degree-days (EDD) above 29◦C across more than half of Corn Belt counties since 1960. We highlight that the varying magnitudes of these trends, alongside differential adoption rates of irrigation between counties, have played a crucial role in explaining the disparities in long-term corn yield trends within the region. Furthermore, we show that the heterogeneous trends in corn yields since 1960 have influenced migration rates among Corn Belt counties in recent decades. Specifically, counties experiencing faster long-term increases in corn yields consistently witness higher levels of population loss due to net migration.

Discutants: Nicolas Yol et Cédric Crofils (Laboratoire d'Économie de Dauphine)

Abstract: This paper investigates the influence of terrain elevation on the impact of climate conditions, particularly rising temperatures, on winter wheat yields across the contiguous United States. Our findings reveal that climate conditions affect winter wheat yields differently depending on terrain elevation, with 500 meters identified as a critical threshold. By analyzing a 40-year period of hourly temperatures, we establish county-specific thresholds for extreme degree days, departing from existing literature. Our estimations indicate that extreme temperatures benefit winter wheat yields during the initial developmental phase but pose risks in later stages, especially for low terrain elevation counties. Consequently, low terrain elevation areas are more vulnerable to yield losses from extreme temperatures overall. Our results suggest therefore a potential shift in wheat production areas due to climate change, potentially leading to movement from low to high terrain elevation areas.

Discutant: Carl Grekou

Discutants: Benjamin Monnery et Daniel Lima Rente

Abstract: Do reminders on mobile phones promote walking? We investigate this question using a large-scale field experiment of 20,187 individuals in France. In collaboration with a step-tracking application, we test how different types of reminders and different extensions of the intervention affect walking habits. We send three types of messages to emphasize three factors that can affect behavior: comparison with own behavior or with peer’s behavior and sunk costs. We vary the duration of the intervention, which lasts 1 or 3 weeks, per each of them. First, we document that the treatment emphasising the comparison with peers is able to attract subject’s attention as it increases the probability of opening the app. However, no type of message was able to affect the number of steps. The average number of steps over the intervention period follows a downward trend, likely determined by a seasonal effect. Gender differences in the use of the app and in the walking behavior are observed.

Discutants: Alessandro Melcarme et Mehdi Ait-Hamlat
Abstract : Cet article propose un état des lieux des polices municipales et de la littérature scientifique qui s’y rapporte, au moment de la création de celle de Paris. Cette police municipale est née dans un contexte parisien de faible sentiment d’insécurité, mais de niveaux élevés de nuisances, justifiant qu’elle se concentre sur les atteintes à la tranquillité publique. Pour ce faire, l’un des enjeux sera de maintenir un partage clair et complémentaire des compétences avec la police nationale, dont les difficultés sont évoquées dans cet article. En effet, selon nos estimations sur données de panel, les effectifs croissants des polices municipales s’accompagnent en moyenne d’une baisse simultanée de la police nationale en France au niveau local, entraînant un effet de substitution. De plus, une série de choix opérationnels – en termes de recrutement, d’équipement ou encore d’allocation des moyens – influenceront l’efficacité de cette nouvelle police municipale en matière de tranquillité publique, laquelle dépend du niveau de confiance et de légitimité reconnu par la population.

Abstract: In this paper we test the relationship between territorial economic performances and related variety in the industrial sector within French employment zones over the period 2016-2021 using a spatial econometrics model. To do so, we mobilize Theil's notion of enterprise as translated by Frenken (2007) in the construction of related and unrelated varieties. we first test the stability over time of this relationship, while controlling for the effect of urbanization externalities, specialization and market concentration. Secondly, we investigate whether there is any non-linearity in this relationship, by grouping employment zones according to their level of relatedness, to test for possible coefficient divergence. This paper highlights France's current industrial production structure and its impact on the economic performance of its employment zones, which is crucial to the implementation of appropriate industrial policies, particularly in the context of the drive to reindustrialize the French territory.

Discutants: Hugo Oriola et Nabil Daher

Abstract: Malgré une intégration progressive des risques financiers d’origine climatique dans les discours des banquiers centraux et superviseurs financiers, les mesures pro-actives de verdissement du système financier restent timides. Parmi les propositions politiques soutenues par ces acteurs, le stress test climatique (STC) est défendu pour sa capacité supposée à atténuer les risques financiers climatiques. Développés en premier lieu dans un cadre européen ou le système financier est développé et complexe mais tendanciellement moins exposé au changement climatique que le reste du monde, cet outil a commencé à être utilisé dans des zones géographiques assez variées, notamment par le biais du NGFS (Network for Greening the Financial System). Dès lors, nous étudions dans cet article l’évolution de l’outil lors de son usage en dehors du cœur européen du NGFS. Par une recension des rapports de STC, nous analysons la manière dont ces exercices sont menés dans les banques centrales et superviseurs financiers à travers le monde. Nous observons les déterminants et les caractéristiques de la mise en place de STC. Tout d’abord ce travail fournit un état des lieux inédit des STC menés par des superviseurs ou des banques centrales. De plus, nous discutons de la pertinence de ces exercices pour atténuer les risques financiers d’origine climatique, en particulier dans les pays du sud. Nous concluons sur les difficultés de la mise en place du STC dans les pays du Sud. Les méthodes développées par le NGFS semblent peu adaptées aux enjeux rencontrés dans les pays les plus touchés par les effets du changement climatique.

Discutants: Olivier Renault et Moustapha Sarr

Abstract: Cet article étudie l'impact des sources d'information des risques d'inondation, des zones d'habitation sur les choix d'assurance et de prévention, et les déterminants de la disponibilité maximale à payer (WTP) pour s'assurer contre les inondations. Nous utilisons à cet effet des données d'une enquête de terrain de septembre 2022 auprès de 593 ménages en milieu urbain au Burkina Faso. Les résultats montrent que les sources d'information et la localisation sont des facteurs très importants dans l'explication des choix d'assurance et des choix de prévention. Nous montrons également que le seul fait d'être informé des risques d'inondation ne suffit pas à expliquer la disponibilité maximale à payer. Enfin, nos résultats indiquent que la perception des risques d'inondation, le recours aux réseaux informels et l’aversion au risque réduisent la WTP, alors que l’aversion à l’ambiguïté augmente la WTP.

Discussants: Rémi Generoso (sénior) et Nguyễn Tuấn (junior)

Abstract: Increasing climate variability is impacting the lives of people across the world drastically. The studies have warned that increasing fluctuations in weather will increase migration as households become unable to adapt. Internal migration is the most obvious choice because of its cheaper cost and fewer legal formalities. The risk of the more vulnerable and less able population is huge as negative income shock and wealth reduction will lead them closer to poverty because of the increasing frequency and intensity of climate variability. This study maps the quarterly individual-level Thai Labour Force Survey data from 1985-2000 to ERA5 Reanalysis climate data to analyse the impact of climate variability on internal migration in Thailand. The studies employ the Linear Probability Model to optimise migration decisions based on climate variability. Climate variability is measured by drought and floods dummy constructed using the Standardised Precipitation and Evaporation Index. The results suggest that the additional month of drought exposure increases the probability of migration.